tv [untitled] November 8, 2014 2:00pm-2:31pm PST
>> we do. good afternoon. and welcome to our regularly schedule meeting of the joint city and school district and select committee for thursday, october 23rd, my name is jane kim and i serve as the chair and i am joined by my colleagues supervisor mark farrell and mendoza, and i want to recognize the clerk and cascoa as well as sfgtv who record the meetings and make them available to our public. madam clerk, are there any announcements? >> there are none. >> could we please take roll call? >> okay, commissioner fewer? >> here. >> supervisor kim?
>> here. >> miss mendoza-mcdonnell? >> thank you. >> and supervisor farrell? >> present. >> thank you. >> we have a quorum. >> okay. >> do you call the rest of the roll. >> this is new. >> we did last month. >> so sorry. >> and so the other members, i will call roll for, supervisor avalos? absent and commissioner wynns is also absent. >> thank you madam clerk. >> thank you. >> could we call the first item? thank you, commissioner. you are not commissioner any more, supervisor. it is file number 1 40986 and it is a hearing on educational and support services for unaccompanied and immigrant children. >> thank you, and this is a
hearing request on presentations from sfusd and the department of public health and human, and the department of human services agency, and the department of family and children services division, regarding educational services and other support services being provided and increase the numbers of unaccompanied minors and immigrant children arriving in san francisco, and this item was heard on september 25th, no action was taken due to the lack of quorum and i do need to take a motion on this item. so i would like to take a motion to file and can we take that motion without opposition and we can do so. thank you. and madam clerk, can you call the second item? >> thank you, supervisor, it is file number 1 40962, and it is a hearing on the city's policies for planning for new student enrollment due to increased residential development.
>> thank you. i sorry... as you know, this item was brought to us actually by the school district. and the city has experienced a tremendous amount of residential growth and a topic of discussion, here in the city and throughout the residential neighborhood and what has specifically come forward though, is actually some positive news, which is that our school district enrollment continues to grow as it has over the last couple of years and now what we are starting to feel the impact of is that we may be reaching and we may be receiving some limitations within our own school district capacity due to the tremendous growth here in the city and so this hearing was put forward and requested actually by president fewerer to understand how residential growth and our over all planning process will impact the schools now and in the future, historically the school district has not been a part of the larger city
planning discussion and this is intent to start the discussion between the planning department and sfusd about this residential growth and today we have gill telly who is here to present on the growth and influencing trends influencing growth and part of the story is how baby boomers and mellenials are leaving in the city to drive for new development in addition, the city has a goal to produce, 33 percent of new residential units as affordable up to 60 percent of residents, and many are being built on the east side of the city and much in the district that i represent, which includes the south of market and mission bay and historically many families have students that go to sfusd and we also have okeefe who will be presenting to provide an overview of the current methodology for projecting enrollment forecast and incredibly interesting and i had a moment to glance at it
and how they plan for potential growth and additionally the school district is being asked to weigh in on developments that could have a impact on school sites and like to consider the big picture throughout the city rather than just being ad hoc and site specific at each instance and i know that the mayor and the supervisor carranza, have been thinking about this issue and i want to thank, mendoza for convening the staff to begin this conversation last month to better align what we are planning in the city along with the school enrollment projection and before we start, i would like to give an opportunity to the school board president and also to our commissioner, to make some comments. >> thank you, supervisor kim, just to give our listening public a little background on this, the san francisco unified school district must by law
educate every student with a public free and public education if they do so choose. and so, our obligation i feel compels us to have this hearing and also to collaborate with the city as we are looking at a increase of residents in san francisco. and i think that it is unprecedented in san francisco history. so, the way that the school district works is that by fire code, we must serve all special ed students, kindergarten and first grade students on the first floor of our buildings, and if we are to accommodate the increasing growth of families here in san francisco, we will or may see a huge boom with kindergarten and first grade students in the next, 7 to 10 years and so we now are looking at commissioner mendoza-mcdonnell is on the buildings and ground committee with me and she knows that we
have designated areas or properties that we own in san francisco unified as surplus properties. so, in order for us to make i think i guess an informed decision about our properties in san francisco, at san francisco unified, it is important for us to understand the population growth where is this growth happening? who is moving in, how many students can we an advertise mate will use the system and how many students we will need to plan for? and i thank you for calling this hearing. >> so then, seeing no further opening remarks, we will have the planning department come before us. >> can we have the mic? >> there we go. >> thank you, for being here today. >> thank you so much for having me.
good afternoon, supervisors. and the commissioners, my name is gill kelley and i direct the city wide planning division of the planning department for the city. let me just first of all say that this is a great moment, and it is good to be in this partnership with the school district to do forward looking planning and it is something that should happen and it is my understanding that it has not happened in the past and so this is a great moment for the listening audience and i am not here to present the results of a planning process and we are at the first step and so my role today is to give you a bit of an overview of the growth projections that we see for the city and our work today has been to look at really the long term projections meaning the 20/40 projections basically derived from the abag, and the one bay area plan. and then, to begin to land those on the ground in areas where we have done the land use planning and see where the gaps are. and we look forward in the future to in our process to
kind of breaking this down by decade or by five year increments to allow the five year planning that will be useful for the school district. and so, at the beginning this year, the data and let me just see if i can call up on the screen the right... from your screen. is it up on your computer screen? >> sfgov tv? >> yes, we got it. >> okay.
>> so, i apologize for not having today's date on this, this is a presentation that we made to the joint group. and how to advance this here. i apologize on not being able to... >> mr. kelley i know that it is your first time, but we usually request copies for each of committee members. >> a poll apologies for that. >> i am not able to advance the slides for some reason.
>> these are coming up on your screen and i will proceed. >> yes. >> okay. and again i apologize for the tech difficulties but i want to begin by just saying that there are some very large trends that are effecting growth in the city and particularly in the school district population, in general, these are the following return to cities, the sprawl phenomena seems to have piqued and the people are moving back to the urban cores and that includes the family and that is a mega trend that we are feeling the results of and there has been a decline in
driving and a desire to live where there is more mobility for transit and walking service and those to the benefit and the growth of the cities. we are seeing in the san francisco bay area, that the business and technology sector in particular is beginning to urbanize as well and we are seeing the location of many of the headquarters for the social media and the other high-techology companies in the heart of the city which is bringing the employment and the population back into the city. and there is also, a state policy around the greenhouse gas to the growth of the transit serviced areas and then finally as was alluded to in the opening remarks, increasingly millennials and the boomers want to live in the city, and so they are having children and quet is will they stay?
that is kind of the big question for us going forward. this comes from the area and updating this plan in 2017 and the growth projections are robust for the bay area and you can see two million people in that next, 25-year time frame and a bunch of that will land in san francisco and about 15 percent of the regional share and that is 92,000 housing units or over 200,000 new people in san francisco by 2040. and about 190,000 new jobs in san francisco. we need to start breaking this
down into new terms and that is the scale of growth and you can imagine 200,000 coming as it is the whole city's worth of population. we have tools that we have been using to plan for the growth and make sure that the amenities and services are there, we have plans and agreements and some redevelopment that will take some of the growth that have enforce able obligations and a smaller amount of growth outside of these areas. and these, and this map is sort of a depiction of the area plans that have already been done. again we expect that a lot of this growth will land on the east side of the city and the south east side in particular and, supervisor kim alluded to earlier but that is not an exclusive phenomena, there will be growth and change in other areas of the city as well just
not to the extreme extent. remember that this slide is really depicting new growth and how the hold holds change in the existing stock is an interesting question for school planning. and this slide, depicts that we are in fact, still sort of hunting for space for 50,000 jobs that we have not landed yet, and we have done a good job of estimating where the housing growth will go, but not all of the employment growth. and this is in the central soma for example. and the difference between those numbers on the bottom line. and this is simply a series that just shows on the top in two dimensions and on the bottom, three, and the densities and what we expect in
the middle column for the new growth to be located and just the new housing and then in the final composite,, and so again, the bottom half of this is simply, depicting that in a 3 d format and simply, you can see the concentrations in the center and in the eastern neighborhoods. and simply, with the jobs that is even more exaggerated on the jobs front and here is where we expect the new jobs to go compared to where they are now. i just wanted to end with these challenges which, will be no surprise to you, but they do underlie these conversations with the school districts. which is that again, we need to understand more about what are the preferences of the mel lenals with the school aged children, what are they looking for besides good schools and that has to be part of the planning work and where the infrastructure demands that we
need to accommodate the growth and population and that lands heavily on the transportation discussion. much of the new growth area, we have efficient transportation services and housing costs of course, are a huge driver in this conversation, and will families be able to afford to live in san francisco, much discussion and work going on that currently, but that remains, a major issue as to how many families will actually be able to afford to live in san francisco. what will be the diversety of the population that will be arriving here and staying here. and then, finally, how do we sort of plan for, or up and down, in the economic cycles that will undoubtedly be seeing over this longer term planning period? and these are sort of the unknowns in projecting for the school populations but they effect other components of our planning work, and so i just wanted to give you that overview, and again to say that, we are really at the
beginning of this planning work with the school district and we look forward to the partnership and i think that it is meaningful for both of our entities. >> thank you, mr. kelley. and just a couple of questions. >> yes. >> first i am really glad that manning department and sfuc is sitting down and actually in my recollection, i think that it is the first time that this has ever happened and it is actually a positive because since the 80s what we have seen is a declining population up to 6 or 7 years ago when it started to stud j and we start to see a grow growth back into usfusd and some that was initially some of the factors that was initially slated to was actually that the economy had gone down hill and many parents, you know, were choosing public schools because of the affordable option for them to stay in the city and but now as the economy comes back into swing, we are seeing
that enrollment continues to grow and there is a positive trend of not just families staying in san francisco, but the families who stay here choosing to go to public school, which i think says a lot about the achievements that the school district has made. i am curious if the planning department does survey work, with the types of choices that families are making and in terms of choosing to stay or leave in san francisco. and are they staying, or are they leaving with their kids become school aged? are there areas where we may want to collect more data through a survey of the new residents with the young children, 0 to 5, are there any considerations that the planning department is making in order to help with the planning work? >> thanks very much for focusing on that question and i raised the same question and the truth is that we have not done a lot of that survey work and we need to. bun of the difficultis in that and it is only a challenge and not a reason to do it, and the best answers comes from the
people who have left the district and where they went and what caused their move and different ways that you can do that and that is one of the reasons that we look forward to dealing with the details in the school district and the team, and it has a consultant team that i think is potentially being engaged that we want to work closely with to see how we best get at that question that you are asking because it is important to know other than the quality of the schools themselves what is causing people to stay or leave when they have kids. >> right, i can imagine the challenge that it would be to have or survey the former residents that left the city to understand the factors that affected their decision to live and i will ask this and i may ask this again at the end, but i am curious moving forward at the end, what the planning is, and sfusd on tackling this question, and again, and the process. and we are very, interested in this question, because we can do all of the planning we want to the physical form of the city. but if we somehow lose our
soul, and we lose the families that really make-up the city, then we have lost something, so this is, a little bit of a new kind of planning for us but one that i very much look forward to. >> and my understanding is that you will also be maoelting quarterly that that is an out come. >> yes. >> so there will be regular conversations that are planned. and i also know that we will be exploring maybe what other cities that are growing their school districts, and what they are doing in the planning department, and i found it very interesting, now, it seems, what we hired carlos from las vegas, he had told us that one of his challenges was actually that he was building schools, because las vegas is a growing county, unlike san francisco. and i know that he then, attracted or retained richard carranza from las vegas, and they have the experience of being in a growing school district t might be the position that sfufd is in and
it will be great to explore what counties like populations in las vegas are doing and it is my understanding that the planning department there and includes a school district and all of their residential development aplaintiffals, and so the school district can plan to build new schools based on where the growth is occurring. >> yeah, very interesting. >> you know, i think that on that point, part of this is about over all projections and predicting growth, and where it will happen, but part of it is going right down into the sort of the trenches with the school district about their particular sites that they own and which ones are best. >> right. >> to think about reusing and rebuilding and which ones will be disposed of for house and other purposes. >> thank you, so much. >> and next, we do have okeefe to present on behalf of the
this afternoon. and just to give you an over, and i am hoping that the technology works and i apologize, and for the delay. hopefully you have all received a copy of the presentation. and that i am about to review? and it is unclear, how to move from page to page on the presentation, so i need some assistance with that. thank you. >> i think that we might have figured it out. >> and in today's presentation, here are the questions that we are going to explore, and how
do we develop the enrollment forecast and how frequently do they refresh the forecast and what do the last forecast rhees vaoel and when and how will sfusd refresh the forecast moving forward and what are some of the long term challenges that questions that the district is exploring and we will start by sharing a little bit of the process that the district use and we have engaged the dem graphic and we researched for a number of years for the forecast for the district and develop them in 2002, 2010, and 2013, and what we found is that each time, they have developed enrollment forecast, the actual enrollments have ended up being exactly the same and so we have had a very high degree of confidence in the approach that they take and what they do is they use data from a variety of sources, and so, they get data from the san francisco planning department and the housing authority and the office of
community and ininvestment and these are the what they worked with and got the data from and at the treasure island, the u.s. census data and what they do and the method that they do is look at birth friends, in san francisco, and the housing growth and a key element of that, is work around, looking at the student yields and so i thought that this afternoon i will go a little bit deep on the methods that they used for the students yield because i think that is key to the discussion and how we are using that information for the forecast. and so, the number of births has increased, and we are talking about births and we are talking about residents of san francisco and it increased during the starting this decade, and last decade, resulting in an increasing enrollments in k12 that started
increasing from the low point in 2008 and most of the enrollment changes from since 2008 canen explained by changes in birth numbers, the birth numbers have been an excellent predicter of subsequent enrollments and so specifically kindergarten enrollments have equaled to half of the number of births to san francisco, residents and, five years earlier. and falling birth numbers resulted in enrollment declines and beginning in the 2000s and to the middle of the decade and there was a slight decline and then starting in the elementary enrollment declined first followed by a decline in the middle and finally in high school enrollment but in 2005, the numbers of birth in san francisco rose causing an increase in elementary and recently a growth in middle school and high school enrollments are expected